DeFi Token Valuation
Protocol revenue only matters to a token holder if a mechanism routes it to them. Every multiple here is paired with that check, valued on circulating market cap, and annualized from a trailing window rather than a single day of fees.
Snapshot 2026-09-24 · fees and unlocks from DefiLlama, price and supply from CoinGecko
Revenue reaches holders today. Multiples carry a claim, so it prices like equity.
Capture is live but young, capped, or governance-revocable. Discount the multiple.
No mechanism routes revenue to the token. Price is a reference, not a claim.
Net holder yield
What holders are paid, minus the assumed sell-through on next year of unlocks and emissions, over circulating market cap. Negative means dilution outruns the payout.
Outcome range
One row per token, both cases measured from 0% — today's price. Blue runs right for the bull case, red runs left for the bear case; they are two independent returns, not the two ends of one distribution. The blue leg follows your peak-fee slider; the red leg is measured, not assumed — 80% of the worst quarter this protocol actually had. A blue bar that also points left means even the optimistic case loses money. These are brackets, not a confidence interval — the bull case compounds two separate 90th-percentile outcomes, so its joint likelihood is far below 10%.
- Bull case
- Bear case
Where the bull case comes from
The same bull number above, split into the three things that produce it. Return = fee torque × multiple re-rate ÷ supply drag, so a segment running right adds to the return and one running left takes it away. The axis is logarithmic — that is what makes the segments add up to the total exactly rather than approximately — and the ticks are relabelled as multiples, so uneven spacing is expected. Read it for the reason, not the size: the tokens at the top of this list are mostly there because their fees sit far below their own last-cycle peak, which is a statement about how far they fell, not about quality.
- Fee torque
- Multiple re-rate
- Supply drag
Screener
Price is decomposed, not forecast: return = fee torque × multiple re-rate ÷ supply drag. That is an identity — the only judgement is the fee assumption, so it is yours to set per token.
| Token | Next-cycle fees, vs last peak | Re-rate ÷ drag | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HYPE Hyperliquid Cash-flow | $20.4B | 35.5x | 2.8%→-1.6% | 80% 0%= 142% of current500% | 0.75x0.81/1.07 | 75% 2x at 149% | 7% -91% $98.20 |
UNIB Uniswap Transitional | $5.7B | 50.8x | 2.0%→0.0% | 80% 0%= 76% of current500% | 1.15x1.19/1.03 | 91% 2x at 182% | -12% -77% $8.06 |
AAVEC Aave Non-accruing | $2.2B | 84.8x | 1.2%→0.8% | 80% 0%= 237% of current500% | 0.64x0.64/1.01 | 53% 2x at 106% | 51% -75% $222 |
MORPHOC Morpho Non-accruing | $2.0B | 127.4x | 0.8%→-10.3% | 80% 0%= 91% of current500% | 0.72x0.85/1.19 | 123% 2x at 246% | -35% -93% $1.82 |
PUMPC Pump.fun Cash-flow | $1.8B | 7.3x | 13.7%→3.1% | 80% 0%= 67% of current500% | 1.05x1.24/1.18 | 114% 2x at 227% | -30% -81% $0.00275 |
SKYB Sky Cash-flow | $1.7B | 54.9x | 1.8%→1.6% | 80% 0%= 103% of current500% | 0.88x0.88/1.00 | 88% 2x at 176% | -9% -53% $0.0667 |
LIGHTERC Lighter Transitional | $1.2B | 42.5x | 2.4%→-25.6% | 80% 0%= 254% of current500% | 0.54x0.79/1.46 | 59% 2x at 117% | 36% -95% $6.83 |
JUP Jupiter Cash-flow | $1.0B | 31.0x | 3.2%→3.2% | 80% 0%= 306% of current500% | 0.72x0.72/1.00 | 36% 2x at 72% | 122% -80% $0.6833 |
CAKE PancakeSwap Cash-flow | $875.2M | 21.6x | 4.6%→3.2% | 80% 0%= 219% of current500% | 0.87x0.89/1.02 | 42% 2x at 84% | 90% -85% $5.20 |
AERO Aerodrome Cash-flow | $694.2M | 7.4x | 13.4%→-1.0% | 80% 0%= 249% of current500% | 0.68x0.84/1.24 | 47% 2x at 95% | 69% -78% $1.18 |
PENDLE Pendle Cash-flow | $450.9M | 66.1x | 1.5%→-0.4% | 80% 0%= 455% of current500% | 0.52x0.53/1.03 | 34% 2x at 68% | 136% -84% $6.11 |
LDOC Lido Transitional | $366.9M | 36.7x | 2.7%→2.3% | 80% 0%= 170% of current500% | 1.01x1.01/1.01 | 47% 2x at 93% | 71% -52% $0.7494 |