DeFi Token Valuation
Protocol revenue only matters to a token holder if a mechanism routes it to them. Every multiple here is paired with that check, valued on circulating market cap, and annualized from a trailing window rather than a single day of fees.
Snapshot 2026-11-13 · fees and unlocks from DefiLlama, price and supply from CoinGecko
Revenue reaches holders today. Multiples carry a claim, so it prices like equity.
Capture is live but young, capped, or governance-revocable. Discount the multiple.
No mechanism routes revenue to the token. Price is a reference, not a claim.
Net holder yield
What holders are paid, minus the assumed sell-through on next year of unlocks and emissions, over circulating market cap. Negative means dilution outruns the payout.
Outcome range
One row per token, both cases measured from 0% — today's price. Blue runs right for the bull case, red runs left for the bear case; they are two independent returns, not the two ends of one distribution. The blue leg follows your peak-fee slider; the red leg is measured, not assumed — 80% of the worst quarter this protocol actually had. A blue bar that also points left means even the optimistic case loses money. These are brackets, not a confidence interval — the bull case compounds two separate 90th-percentile outcomes, so its joint likelihood is far below 10%.
- Bull case
- Bear case
Where the bull case comes from
The same bull number above, split into the three things that produce it. Return = fee torque × multiple re-rate ÷ supply drag, so a segment running right adds to the return and one running left takes it away. The axis is logarithmic — that is what makes the segments add up to the total exactly rather than approximately — and the ticks are relabelled as multiples, so uneven spacing is expected. Read it for the reason, not the size: the tokens at the top of this list are mostly there because their fees sit far below their own last-cycle peak, which is a statement about how far they fell, not about quality.
- Fee torque
- Multiple re-rate
- Supply drag
Screener
Price is decomposed, not forecast: return = fee torque × multiple re-rate ÷ supply drag. That is an identity — the only judgement is the fee assumption, so it is yours to set per token.
| Token | Next-cycle fees, vs last peak | Re-rate ÷ drag | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HYPE Hyperliquid Cash-flow | $16.9B | 18.9x | 5.3%→1.3% | 80% 0%= 93% of current500% | 1.34x1.43/1.07 | 64% 2x at 128% | 25% -86% $87.20 |
UNIB Uniswap Transitional | $3.5B | 25.9x | 3.9%→1.9% | 80% 0%= 79% of current500% | 1.74x1.79/1.03 | 59% 2x at 117% | 37% -65% $7.63 |
AAVEC Aave Non-accruing | $1.7B | 55.7x | 1.8%→1.4% | 80% 0%= 203% of current500% | 1.45x1.46/1.01 | 27% 2x at 54% | 194% -63% $319 |
PUMPC Pump.fun Cash-flow | $1.5B | 5.0x | 20.2%→9.3% | 80% 0%= 59% of current500% | 1.60x1.89/1.18 | 85% 2x at 169% | -6% -76% $0.00319 |
MORPHOC Morpho Non-accruing | $1.4B | 63.1x | 1.6%→-9.3% | 80% 0%= 71% of current500% | 1.50x1.77/1.18 | 75% 2x at 150% | 7% -89% $2.03 |
SKYB Sky Cash-flow | $1.3B | 21.5x | 4.6%→4.5% | 80% 0%= 105% of current500% | 1.21x1.21/1.00 | 63% 2x at 127% | 26% -38% $0.0711 |
JUP Jupiter Cash-flow | $873.2M | 30.0x | 3.3%→3.3% | 80% 0%= 224% of current500% | 1.17x1.17/1.00 | 31% 2x at 61% | 162% -74% $0.6701 |
LIGHTERC Lighter Transitional | $808.7M | 19.4x | 5.2%→-21.9% | 80% 0%= 151% of current500% | 1.26x1.85/1.46 | 42% 2x at 84% | 91% -93% $6.04 |
CAKE PancakeSwap Cash-flow | $585.8M | 13.1x | 7.6%→6.3% | 80% 0%= 183% of current500% | 1.45x1.48/1.02 | 30% 2x at 60% | 164% -76% $4.40 |
AERO Aerodrome Cash-flow | $338.3M | 2.8x | 35.8%→16.2% | 80% 0%= 199% of current500% | 1.38x2.57/1.87 | 29% 2x at 58% | 174% -70% $1.27 |
PENDLE Pendle Cash-flow | $267.0M | 55.2x | 1.8%→-0.1% | 80% 0%= 596% of current500% | 1.14x1.18/1.03 | 12% 2x at 23% | 582% -74% $10.34 |
LDOC Lido Transitional | $251.8M | 25.2x | 4.0%→3.5% | 80% 0%= 134% of current500% | 1.81x1.83/1.01 | 33% 2x at 66% | 142% -33% $0.7217 |